2024-2025 College Admission Predictions

May 24, 2024

As this unfathomable year draws to a close, if you are like me, you are more interested in looking forward rather than trying to make sense of the mess that lies behind us. Last year, a year that made any hindsight blurry, at best.

What will 2023 bring? With a presidential election behind us, and a coronavirus vaccine beginning to inoculate the nation, the coming year will bring unity and healing. College leaders general consensus was that virtual admission is here to stay, standardized testing will fade away, and enrollment unpredictability will rule the day.

Enrollment Trends

While we will know more as their research unfolds this year, Jerry Lucido, a professor of practice and associate dean of strategic enrollment services for the University of Southern California’s Rossier School of Education, points out that, “many of the analytics that admission offices use to predict enrollment and to make admission decisions are in flux. Testing is optional at best and missing in most files. The ability to travel to and experience campuses is highly limited. Activities records are more difficult to assess. It means that the strength of the curriculum completed and the grades achieved, always the most important factors in admission, will play an ever stronger role.” He predicts that “with other factors being difficult to assess, all but the most highly selective colleges will hedge their bets and open the doors wider. The less selective the school, the farther open the door will swing.” He also explains that “families that can demonstrate an ability and a willingness to pay will be coveted.

Virtual Reality

Mike Drish, director of first-year admissions at the University of Massachusetts Amherst believes that “most admission offices will happily return to in-person visits and events.” He points out, however, that “there is a comfort now with virtual engagement (webinars, social media, virtual tours) – for both admission offices and prospective students/families – and that will allow many colleges to have a broader reach than ever before and greater access for years to come. Everyone has the set-up at home, so it seems likely that a return to in-person recruitment will be accented by virtual engagement.”

Though many admission strategies will continue to benefit from what we have learned about virtual recruiting, place-based education will be in high demand. After years of predictions that on-line universities will replace bricks and mortar institutions, high school and college students are exhausted by online learning. They long for the personal connections that online learning simply cannot provide. Online universities will continue to have a role to play, but residential institutions with a proven track record of fostering both students’ academic and personal development will thrive.”

Testing

University of Massachusetts’ Drish says “large scale SAT/ACT optional is not a one-year phenomenon. It is likely that at a minimum this will be 2-3 years for many universities, including state flagship universities. He adds, “SAT/ACT optional for a few admission cycles means a potential new normal, and risk-averse institutions may be concerned about returning to requiring test scores and therefore lose any perceived gains in those years.” Jonathan Burdick, vice provost for enrollment at Cornell University agrees, predicting that “many of the hundreds of selective institutions who became test-optional for the pandemic will announce intentions soon that they will stay that way for longer than they had originally planned.” part of the fuel for that choice and continuation will be active questions of university’s and admission office’s roles in anti-racism.” Beth Wiser, executive director of undergraduate admission at The Ohio State University highlights that “what this application cycle has provided is permission to test and change long-held admission practice.”

Speaking of benefiting students and meeting their needs, there is a growing call from high school counselors for colleges and universities that traditionally have required standardized tests to make decisions about whether they will retain optional testing policies for the high school graduating class of 2023.

Bob Schaeffer, interim executive director of FairTest: National Center for Fair & Open Testing explains that 72% of all bachelor-degree granting institutions are not requiring testing from students applying for fall 2023. He says, “of the 600+ colleges and universities suspending test-score submission requirements, more than 100 announced that the new policies would be permanent or adopted multi-year pilots.” Schaeffer adds, “We can be certain that at least 1,170 schools will be test-optional for fall 2024 applicants,”

Cloudy Crystal Balls

Most admission office predicts: applicants will slow down and not return to ‘building a resume’ to get into college, but to focus on what is meaningful to them. Do they have new hobbies that they enjoy? The pandemic has forced us all to be a bit more creative and to slow down, reconsider what brings joy to them every day and know that the small things are just as important if they bring joy and satisfaction to individuals.